Tuesday, June 2, 2009

SRS and SKF a Good Short Term Play?

First, the VIX continues its trend of teasing the 20 dma and then bouncing off. Today it opens less than 2 pts from the 20 dma and would seem primed to cross it as the market is clearly overbought. But the bulls seem to be clearly in control or bears just don't have it in them. You have to continue to play that trend and I think the VIX will likely move up close to a point today or tomorrow to once again sniff the 20 dma and then drop off once again.

So, from that, I think SRS and SKF could be good short term 10% plays today/tomorrow. But you can't play them longer term than that until the VIX does cross the 20 dma (yeah you are sick of me saying that but its just the way it is).

I took profits yesterday on UNG but plan a re-entry today. UNG may be technically breaking out and you really need to look at this ETF. It broke the 20 dma yesterday and the 20 dma broke the 50 dma late last week. Two very bullish indicators.

China and emerging markets continue to roll and if you missed it, you didn't miss it. These are good longer term plays that you have to have somewhere in your long term portfolio. The hell with the U.S. equities. They will underperform emerging markets and especially China.

I think Gold is due for a pullback here but not a big one. Perhaps fill a gap to 940 but for those playing GLL expecting a collapse in Gold, you are swimming upstream.

Bad data will come out today in the form of housing data and auto data. The question isn't whether the data is bad. The question is, how bad and how will the media spin it and how will market react. I will buy SRS at the open and watch for SRS to spike after 10am and if it does, it would be a good selling point or a point to hedge with puts or covered calls.


  1. Maybe it's time to be bearish on CRE again. Cramer is bullish on them:


  2. Interesting post:

    The Vix and Treasury spread compared.