Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Beware the VIX

The VIX is once again kissing the 20 dma. Every time it has done this in the current 3 month rally, it has fallen back. Nothing feels different right now than it has for 3 months so you have to expect the same will happen. Keep an eye on 31.60 for the VIX, if we don't pass this by end of day, you have to assume the VIX will bounce back down. If we do pass this above 32, perhaps this is the signal.

And isn't it interesting to see the terrible numbers on mortgages and the media spins it as though, we really should have known this was coming so it should not be a surprise. Well, guess what, it is a surprise and it will be damaging to banks. Refi's are way down but so are approved mortgages on houses. Thus, we will see continued declines in home prices, more foreclosures and less new homes being built.

Green shoot my ass.

1 comment:

  1. Have you been eyeing the new levered vix etfs? I think there are significant opportunities to play the decay game a la skf.