Here we are. The day we knew would come eventually and the day many have said the S&P was magnetized to. We will hit the 200 day MA today on the S&P. Theoretically, and the odds are that it will bounce off this number at least the first time since a 200 day MA is a strong resistance especially when it has been below the 200 dma for so long.
But the VIX remains solidly below it's 20 dma which would indicate the market is still not ready for a real correction.
So, we stay in a trading market where longs have to take profits on moves up and shorts have to take profits on moves down and I will continue to do this until the VIX breaks its 20 dma.
I have really moved mostly out of the U.S. equities and focused on energy, nat. gas, gold, china, and emerging markets. I exited my TBT positions early last week and looking to re-enter those this week at 52 or even lower.
Financials continue to be way to volatile and a completely unknown commodity. Some experts say the banks will have record earnings, others say the toxic assets (that no one is talking about) will eat them from within.
Long term, the market will have a huge correction and I still believe it will be this summer, starting in June. Unless you believe markets go straight up with unemployment at record levels, you can't bet on the markets continuing their march.