Monday, May 4, 2009


New home sales up 3.2%. Media is pumping it as great news and that recession is close to over.

Let them pump it. They have no idea what is about to hit them. Unemployment continues to rise, these houses are selling and depressed prices, just lowering the avg house price. We have a looooooooooong way to go before the housing crisis is over. We are just in the beginning of it. Unemployment will destroy the housing market further.

This, my friends, is becoming a HUGE short opportunity. Don't fight it right now. Let them pump it up higher and higher. By June or July, reality will set in that this was all a mirage for the bulls. It may be painful for the bears at times but the bulls will get hurt much worse.

I do hope the market goes up to the 950 level as many are proclaiming. The higher it goes, the farther it will fall. A run like that may very well shake out bears and suck in bulls, just what the doctor ordered.


  1. Beamer, I told you last week, quit being negative on the market and add some long positions.

  2. Jay, I am not negative on the market. I am negative, er..., I mean a realist on the economy. You can choose to believe the hype that the recession is over, or you can look around you and see the foreclosures, the extreme inbalance of resumes vs. job postings, the GDP numbers, and the store closings.

    I have hedges, but to go long in this market at this time is just not a good choice. Sure, you may get some upside but the odds are that the market will see 800 again in the not-so distant future and being a good poker player, I always play the odds. I don't always win, but by playing the odds, I win more than I lose.


  4. BD,

    Do you think it will take until "June or July" for P2 up to end and P3 down to begin?

  5. SRS, I am not a EWT guy but I do pay attention to it. I think primary waves are up for interpretation. Some say primary waves take weeks, others say months, others say years. Yes, years. Some say P1 started in July 2000 and ended on the double bottom in Oct 2002. P2 ended on the double top in Oct 2007. And we are still in P3 waiting for the double bottom.

    This makes perfect sense and abides by EWT. I was actually thinking of blogging this and I just may do it.

    So, the answer is, I can't answer your question because who is really to say we are in P2? You can believe what you want to believe and perhaps we are in P2 but who am I to say. All I know is use TA as a map but use fundamentals as a guide.