Wednesday, May 6, 2009

The End of Wave P2

Many people are contemplating this. When is the end of wave P2. As though this is predictable and something to plan for.

The truth is, no one knows. And is P2 even real? Even if it is, are we even in P2? I offer an alternative here.

First, so many people are assuming primary wave 1 ended in early march at 666 and that we are in primary wave 2. Who is to say when P1 even started? Many say P1 started in Oct 2007 and ended in March 2009. A year and a half. So why do we think P2 will only last 3 months?

But again, is this P2? Was Oct 2007 thru March 2009 P1? By rights, a primary wave should end (it doesn't have to, but it should) in a double top or bottom. If that rule were strict and we used weekly charts, what if I said we are in the bottoming phase of P3? Not only are we not in P2 but we are in the downward bottoming of P3.

Take a look at the chart below. If EWT is moved out to years instead of months, perhaps this bear market started in August of 2000. P1 ended in a double bottom in October of 2002. P2 ended with a double top in October of 2007 and we are in the most destructive wave of all in P3 right now, but have not double bottomed.

Its a potential macro-level alternative primary wave count. I am not saying it is real but with wave theory, you really don't know what wave you are in until you are past the wave. You can't get 5 EW guys in a room and agree on all the primary, minor, secondary, mini waves.


  1. bsen, i like that count alternative, i do.


    b/c the market was worth ALOT more in 2000 than in 2007. So many people forget or perhaps fail to understand this.

    The dollar was worth 40% more in 00 than it was in 07. Hence spx 1400 was worth 40% more than spx 1400 7 years later.

    I wish stockcharts has a SPX ticker to chart that was adjusted for INFLATION.

  2. the reason eliott wave traders do not use that chart, is b/c P2 is higher than P1.....

    again, not adjusted for