Monday, April 6, 2009

VIX Bounces Off Lower Trend Line

Watching the tape today, I find it very interesting any attempt at buying on the dips is failing. VIX is slowly moving up approaching 43 now. This is a clear bounce off of the lower trend line and a temporary bearish indicator. If it can close at or near 46 today or tomorrow, I believe that will indicate the bear market rally is truly taking a breather or could even be over.

Earnings are going to be key. I can't imagine a wave of upside surprises so I think the VIX is above its lower trend line to stay for awhile.

The uptick rule decision is coming. Its' the last bullet in the chamber. I can see them changing rules on short trade delivery but not on eliminating short trades. Eliminating short trades to any degree would cause a bigger problem for brokerage institutions than they already have due to lost revenue in trades.


  1. AA is reporting tomorrow a/h. Should be interesting.

    But the rest of this week is mostly a lot of Chinese ADRs reporting.

  2. AA may do well. All airlines have done a decent job of reducing some flights and also benefited from lower fuel. What happens with AA has nothing to do with AAI

  3. thanks for the references, Brian.

  4. Ah, sorry. I travel a lot and for travellers, AA is American Airlines. :) Alcoa will be very interesting as will the entire earnings season. Some will miss big, some will surprise big. This earnings season will be a tell on where market sentiment really is. How will market react on big misses and big surprises? Should be interesting.