Monday, April 6, 2009

VIX Bounces Off Lower Trend Line

Watching the tape today, I find it very interesting any attempt at buying on the dips is failing. VIX is slowly moving up approaching 43 now. This is a clear bounce off of the lower trend line and a temporary bearish indicator. If it can close at or near 46 today or tomorrow, I believe that will indicate the bear market rally is truly taking a breather or could even be over.

Earnings are going to be key. I can't imagine a wave of upside surprises so I think the VIX is above its lower trend line to stay for awhile.

The uptick rule decision is coming. Its' the last bullet in the chamber. I can see them changing rules on short trade delivery but not on eliminating short trades. Eliminating short trades to any degree would cause a bigger problem for brokerage institutions than they already have due to lost revenue in trades.

5 comments:

  1. AA is reporting tomorrow a/h. Should be interesting.

    But the rest of this week is mostly a lot of Chinese ADRs reporting.

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  2. AA may do well. All airlines have done a decent job of reducing some flights and also benefited from lower fuel. What happens with AA has nothing to do with AAI

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  3. Ah, sorry. I travel a lot and for travellers, AA is American Airlines. :) Alcoa will be very interesting as will the entire earnings season. Some will miss big, some will surprise big. This earnings season will be a tell on where market sentiment really is. How will market react on big misses and big surprises? Should be interesting.

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