Thursday, March 12, 2009

March 12th - midday

S&P approaching 740 and VIX right at the lower trend line. This has all the makings of a complete and utter reversal to do the downside in the market. Don't over extend yourself by betting the house. If 740 is breached by more than 5 pts, I would fear that longs have the upper hand. May be a great spread opportunity right now.

We should continue to go higher today but end of day, I think we start to see that move under 740 and then expect to see a new leg down in the market.

Try to ignore the news as much as possible. Talking heads on TV can lead you astray. If you must, listen to bloomberg. Much more unbiased and much less PPT. Pay attention to technicals. A VIX going below the lower trend line can be a bad signal and S&P above 740-745 could also be a bad signal. But if the market reverses end of day to avoid those numbers, it is very clear market headed down.

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