Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Why Some Technicians Are Confused

I am a bit surprised by the confusion I see some of the market technicians having. Both professional and amateur. They are tending to change their predicted direction of the market daily and getting it wrong almost every day. Not all of them, but quite a few.

What I find is, we are seeing the market becoming more of a short term play by retail and professional investors and thus, technicians are using hourly and even minute charts to track out their trend lines and waves and analysis.

I am not a professional, but stick an hourly chart in front of me and you may as well give me a fork to eat tomato soup. Its a tool, but it isn't really helpful.

Looking at any daily or weekly chart, there is enough evidence that the market is exhausted. But it does not mean we are headed down from here. What it means is, on every move up, it just creates a better shorting opportunity. You have to sell on any strength and we are probably going to stay in a 890-925 range until earnings season so don't expect a big move before then.

The VIX is bouncing above and below the 20 ma and I think think is signaling that the mountain is going to blow but when? Wouldn't we all like to know...



  2. take a look at tin....

    setting up nicely...for a july swing short...

  3. I am waiting for earnings season to pass first before entering short. Until then I am a bull.

    Also, looking tentatively at a YHOO short.