The VIX seemed to be on its way for a nice run above the 20 dma mid last week as it vaulted and confirmed the move on Tuesday. But a slide Wednesday thru Friday put it right back to its lower resistance line of 28. A break of this line would appear to tell us the market is stabalizing or going higher, not lower.
It is very difficult to determine the direction of this market right now so caution has to be taken. I continue to stay away from U.S. securities. I like emergining markets very much and I really like Nat Gas via UNG for a longer term play.
TBT seems like a nice buying opportunity here. There is plenty of support at the 51-52 level so downward risk is very low and upward potential is very good.
KRE has a pretty clear bearish looking chart. I am playing it short but with stops at 21. If it were to hit that number, the 20 dma may re-cross the 50 dma and i don't want to play that game. But I suspect KRE is a pretty good short here but maybe stabalize in the short term. 3 months it should see 15 or lower.
If you want to believe the hype of the smart phones, go right ahead. I really wanted to short RIMM last week due to its incredible run creating a bubble. But I just did not have the guts since it is a risky play to get in the way of a runaway train. I think RIMM and APPL are both headed for a correction. Apple wants you to believe there is a mad rush for the 3Gs and there is good sales, but it is not in the order of magnitude that the stock price would indicate. I went to an AT&T store today about upgrading one of our phones. I asked about the iPhone sales and they said they are good but it is not nearly as powerful as the intro of the 3G. Just one data point but I have heard the same about other stores.
Watch the dollar. The dollar and energy will drive this market one way or the other. I believe a weeker dollar will be good for TBT and UNG and perhaps not so good for the market.
Happy Fathers day and good luck in this very difficult market.