I don't like to make table pounding, bold recommendations, but I would be very surprised to see SRS under $50 anytime again in the next 3-6 months. Could be the steal of the century. But what do I know? I said SRS was a bargain under $80.
I am not normally a double up and average cost down. But this time, its a no-brainer.
VIX opened flat. That gives no signal on where we are going today. Likely to be flat all day but leaning to the down side.
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Brian I agree market flat in the morning down in the afternoon. I added to my SRS. I dont see this being under 50 for long either. GL
ReplyDeleteYen broke 100 this morning on the dollar pair. The effects are more pronounced on the crosses. These are bullish indicators.
ReplyDeleteBeamer Dog
ReplyDeleteI bought srs too early at $52.50. Obviously not a genius plan after all. Any advice for today? Thanks for your insight.
Peanut Dog
I am baffled on SRS. It makes no sense. How are REITs rallying in this environment is beyond me. I can only guess it is a short squeeze and not fundamentally based. Pure manipulation? Its hard to say at this point
ReplyDeleteSomeone on the SRS Yahoo! board was saying that the WSJ had a mention that the government was angling for CRE bailouts. Didn't see it myself, but that could be the catalyst for this insanity.
ReplyDeleteThanks Beamer Dog,
ReplyDeleteI've read that it is because of possible Talf extension for real estate. I'm waiting until after they announce to get back in.
Peanut the Dog
Well, if you believe they will extend TLF to CRE, I have a bridge to sell you. TALF is not big enough to bailout the banks right now. They won't have anything close to leftover funds for CRE. And there is no benefit to tax payers to bail out CRE.
ReplyDeleteThe frustrating thing about this SRS move today is to have such a solid week playing options mostly to the bullish side and then to have it wiped out by some insane move in CRE???
ReplyDeletei thought it rally b/c KIM shoot up? in huge volume too. i don't know why.
ReplyDeletei meant iyr rally but srs down.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed is an institution that traditionally makes short-term debt available. In TALF, federal loans run three years, already a duration Fed officials are uncomfortable making. But even that might not be long enough to spur investor demand for commercial mortgage securities, which typically mature over 10 years.
ReplyDeleteReal-estate industry executives have been trying to resolve these issues with Fed and Treasury officials in meetings led by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, say people familiar with the matter. The government officials are considering extending the TALF to accommodate the needs of the commercial real-estate industry but no decisions have been made. In a statement Monday, the Treasury suggested the Fed might alter the terms of its loans to investors to make them more attractive for long-term securities.
you clearly have no idea how any of these double our triple etf's work...
ReplyDeleteyou should look that up before pounding the table about any of these
it will now take 3 consecutive 5% down days on IYR to get SRS back to 50. so, if IYR gets back to $25 in 3 days, SRS will still be $5 cheaper than April 1, when IYR last hit $25...
ReplyDeleteso much for leverage ;)
Brian & everyone:
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about the Elliott Wave notion that we're now in Primary Wave 2 which will rise to about S&P 1000 (before P3 resumes the decline to below S&P 666)?
If S&P rises to 1000, SRS may fall to $10!
I've been playing SRS for 6 months, and I think eventually SRS will rise spectacularly. But probably not soon & probably not from today's $38 level.
Yes, CRE & REITs are in terrible trouble for at least 2-3 years. But IYR may not collapse until late 2009 or even 2010 (because lenders keep extending CRE loans hoping for a recovery).
Do you think SRS will see $10 or $20 before it sees $100 or $200 again?
I welcome others' opinions.
We may be in P2, but P2 has waves within. So far we have not seen gaps filled to 750.
ReplyDelete