Wednesday, April 29, 2009

The Pump Still Has Air

Looks like the pump is still pumping hot air into the balloon. GDP numbers were horrible. HORRIBLE! There is no positive out of a GDP number of more that -6% for two straight quarters. Its the worst streak since the 1950's. Let Pisani and his pals spin it as they wish, but all it is doing is pumping more hot air into a balloon ready to burst at the seams.

Expect the Fed to continue to sugar coat the economic conditions to further pump up banks so they can raise capital via secondary markets. Look for a BAC secondary offering before the end of the week so they can raise capital before the stess test results are announced on Monday.

If you have been sitting on the sidelines, this appears to be a good entry point for short positions. The market is rising on unsubstantiated data, or even worse, rising on bad data. Its 1999 all over again. Once the pump stops working, its an ugly slide down. The question is, are you positioned to withstand the government PPT?


  1. oh boy, how i lost big on SRS in the last few weeks. It seemed that every time there was a "good entry for short positions" the market went up, then up again. I can't 'bear' it any longer. I've always heard that this is what happens, and here it is. Brutal.

  2. SRS is a tough nut to crack which is why I mentioned last week it is a trading tool only and you have to play it with discipline because it is obviously being manipulated.

    One positive on SRS today is, it did not go down its usual 20% when the market has a big up day. Not much else to say about it other than the market can be wrong a lot longer than we would want until it finally gets it right.

  3. I guess that is the trend these days...if it performs badly but not as bad as expected, then it's a good thing!