Tuesday, August 4, 2009


It's time. Finally a spot to pull the trigger on some short positions. I was stopped out early on shorting AmEx and KRE. Stayed out of the market other than playing TBT and UNG. But now is the time to enter short positions. I base this on technicals of charts as well as reality that the market is overbought in a difficult economy. I think we go back to test 930 before a bounce brings us back to the upper '900's. We will see.

On the positive front, I am running into people who are openly spending money. Installing a pool, buying cars, upgrading the house, etc. At the same time, many friends and family who have been out of work still are. Some have been out of work for more than 10 months. Sooner or later this will catch up the economy. I feel like this is a period of false hope and in the end, many will get burned by over spending or being complacent.

Tech is on fire. I won't touch it either way. It really needs to correct but I won't get in front of that train. You have to have some sort of inflation trade. TBT or GLD have got to be in your portfolio. I still like nat gas plays as a long term play but if you are not keeping up with what the gov't is trying to do with futures activity around energy, well, all I can say is playing UNG is risky at best since it may not be able to track to future prices anymore.

1 comment:

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