Friday, August 21, 2009

Gone but not Forgotten

I apologize for slacking off on my writing time over the past two months but I went from no work to way too much work in a very short amount of time. Went from 10 hours a week of work to over 70 hours a week. While I do appreciate it, I do not have much time for the extra-curricular activities such as blogging. And even sadder, I have made 4 trades in the last 6 weeks. 4. That is less than the number of fingers on a hand. Sad, but at the same time, lost very little money to my broker. :)

Where are my thoughts these days? Still watching the VIX. While I can't see it ever getting back up in the 40-50 range in the next 6 or more years, I think we will be hover in the 25-30 range for a very long time which is a much higher number than historically it is used to. It means we should expect unexpected wild swings in the market coming up and it will all be news driven.

What was interesting about the fall in the market earlier this week is that there was not follow through. On Monday, I expected that perhaps some panic would hit the market and the fall under 990 would be followed soon by 980 and 970 rather quickly. Yet the market had a decent close on Monday considering the poor day and has been up 3 days straight since then. Resilient for sure.

I am bullish (yes, bullish) on energy. Energy stocks may be the leader for the next 12 months. Natural Gas is going to be one of the leaders in this sector long term. Probably right behind solar. I don't think Oil will be a leader due to reduced dependency on oil and less demand.

I think financials will be flat for the next 12 months at best. This should provide a very nice opportunity for traders to be short FAS and FAZ. Both should deteriorate over time and should provide pretty easy money.

Tech should outpace other industries which is not to say tech will be up, but it will be less down than other sectors.

As I told many for a long time, I think the presumption that the P2 wave was over or near over was just a wish and dream that was way too early. Primary waves take many many months if not years. a 6 month Primary wave was a total dream. That said, I still would not be long this market in general. But there are pockets out there to pick out.

I like Gold, Energy and I hate regional banks still (KRE). I think Tech will be dead money for awhile (until Holiday season).

OK, hopefully I will post more than once a month but I am seriously bogged down and haven't been keeping up with things lately.

36 comments:

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