The Obama administration has done a noble job of trying to control the market via trying to show that the economy was getting better with marginal data. They are hiding the mess of the banking disaster, they are trying to make it sound like unemployment is under control, they are pumping money all over wall street. And all have worked in propping up the market.
The one thing Obama does not have control over is oil. And that is what is taking the wind out of any sails the economy has. With oil and gas prices up, it leads to less spending by individuals and inflation. The combination of the too can create a devastating consequence on the market and on the economy.
People will still buy their iPhones and Blackberry's because communication is still the essential means of growth, relationships and even survival. But outside of that and some entertainment, individuals are not going to be spending much for the remainder of the year until inflation is in check and unemployment reverses direction.
And oil has a lot to do with all of it, unfortunately.
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GS, JPM, and MS are all engaged in oil arbitrage trades by TAKING PHYSICAL DELIVERY of spot contracts and selling the forward contracts. Guess what happens if oil falls in the coming months. . . .
ReplyDeleteHell, maybe we'll get lucky, get a year without a Summer, AGW will be discredited, and we'll ramp up domestic supply...
ReplyDelete...Oh, what was I thinking?!