Friday, April 24, 2009

End o' Week Wrap Up

I don't have any clever quips or stories or antidotes tonight. I am so sure of where the market is going, I am starting to doubt myself. It just seems very clear that the market will zig zag to the southeast for the next couple of weeks as all the good news is out and now reality sets in waiting for the next earnings season, just as it did in Q1.

But now everyone is saying it so I am doubting it a bit. Still playing it but thinking i need more hedge positions. I won't make that move tomorrow. I want to see what the volume looks like. And the VIX is usually down on Friday unless it gaps up in the morning.

Financials are still dangerous as a whole. There are still pockets out there to pick off. AXP went up after hours even though their earnings and forward looking statements were questionable. I have to believe the A/H action was retail investors thinking they stock will rise on the news. I think there may be downgrades in the morning. How does a company lose 50% of their rev's, say forward looking there are a lot of risk with defaults, and if necessary, they will just lay off more people in order to meet earnings, yet the stock goes up???

AXP is on life support and are living off of "reengineering" their resources which means cutting more jobs. Cutting more jobs is not an act of growth but an act of desperation to maintain short term profits. I feel pretty good about my AXP position.

I think tech is starting to form a bubble. Tech can not be an island in a sea of a poor economy. It will eventually be pulled down as well.

Commodities and metals will be the play again in the next couple of weeks as we head toward 760.


  1. I think we are all sick of this never ending rally... we know it is a farce and yet the buying continues... I just play the day trades right now, cuz I got stopped out of my swing with profit... I'll get in again next week sometime.... have a great weekend....

  2. investors recognize now that the sky is no longer falling (as it was in autumn 2008). therefore people are willing to put money to work. it doesn't matter that many names in the financial & REIT space have doubled off their lows. the fact is most of them will survive & have the Fed's implied backing in the name of saving our economy. look at a 6 to 12 month chart of anything & tell me we don't have room to move higher.

  3. I agree with QevolveQ. The market will continue to rally. Earnings have been stellar! I just loaded up on DDM, DXO and SSO. I expect DJI to close in the 9500 range by mid June. Better cover all your shorts, especially SRS and FAZ. Have a great weekend!

  4. AXP is definitely undervalued. There is sufficent excess cashflow to cover any losses. Nice 20% rally today. I expect the trend to continue.